So I am going to make my predictions on the caucus. I've seen the polls. I've heard the speeches. I've seen Twitter and Facebook commentary. I've driven around Iowa and seen what yard signs are out there.
In the past, I always seem to over predict the vote totals of people I like. I think that is because I tend to gravitate to those I agree with. So I've decided this year, I'm going to give a minus 3% to the people I like in getting the final percentages. So here ya go....feel free to mock me now, or on Wednesday morning.
Let's start with the Democrats. I think Bernie's going to win Iowa. Hillary got 3rd in 2008, if you do not recall, behind 0bama and John Edwards. Iowans want candidates to go to the Pizza Ranches, and small rallies in coffee shops. Hillary rarely does that. And for whatever reason, Iowa is a state that has not been comfortable with women candidates. If you recall, Iowa has never had a woman elected to federal office until just 1.5 years ago when Joni Ernst won the US Senate race.
Of course Hillary has plenty of supporters. But I think in what is of interest to the Democrat electorate in Iowa, Bernie matches more viewpoints. Martin O'Malley? Dude is running for Vice President or something. He should have an asterisk by his name.
Bernie Sanders 52% ||| Hillary Clinton 45% ||| Martin O'Malley 2% ||| Uncommitted 1%
The big story is that Trump leads in the polls. He gets huge crowds wherever he goes. But I'm calling my shot. He is not going to win Iowa. If he does, the Republican nomination is set. He will be the Republican nominee. But like I said, I don't think he wins. He would if we had a primary, but I just don't think he will get enough people out to a caucus to win it.
Ted Cruz is going to win Iowa. He has a great organization. And he is going to get most of the evangelical vote, which is what makes up the majority of Iowa Republican caucus goers.
Rubio is going to come in 3rd, plenty of interest in him. 2016 won't be his year. But if he keeps his nose clean, I can see him being the R nominee in some future election.
Rand Paul could have been in 2nd and 3rd, but for whatever reason, he didn't seem to keep his father's coalition together. I think a lot of his constituency is at Bernie Sanders too. Younger folks that are not fans of the drug war, and the NSA spying, often have some same economic ideas as Bernie, and that hurts Rand.
Ben Carson had his chance, people like him, but I think in the year of Trump, people probably want a little more a boisterous president, and not one as cerebral.
As for the rest, Carly will get some votes because she is a woman, not for any other compelling reason. Christie has some establishment support, but he just didn't click in Iowa. Kasich has appeal to more moderate Republicans, and would do better in a general election than a Republican caucus.
I forgot about Jeb Bush. Last August or so, the incestuous media always talked about Bush. Anybody with any nose to the ground knew he was getting nowhere. Yes, he had a crap ton of money. But there was no, and I mean NO, ground roots support for the guy. I know people across the political spectrum, and never once, this whole season, did I hear of someone who said they were going to vote for Jeb. Which annoyed me that the media propped him up all the time. But I digress...
Ted Cruz 32% ||| Donald Trump 30% ||| Marco Rubio 12% ||| Ben Carson 8% ||| Rand Paul 8%
John Kasich 3% ||| Chris Christie 3% ||| Carly Fiorina 2% ||| Jeb Bush 2%
And at 1% or less Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorumdoesn't add to 100% due to rounding
I'm still pondering revealing my caucus vote. Maybe because I'm still pondering who to vote for.....
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